Gradually, then Suddenly (AI thresholds)

Gradually, then Suddenly: Upon the Threshold is a good piece to contrast with my previous link to a post that considered the evidence that LLMs may be plateauing

We know AI is a general purpose technology - it will have wide-ranging effects across many industries and areas of our lives. But it is also flawed and prone to errors in some tasks, while being very good at others. Combine this jagged frontier of LLM abilities with their widespread utility and the concept of capability thresholds and you start to see the development of LLMs very differently. It isn’t a steady curve but a series of thresholds that, when crossed, suddenly and irrevocably change aspects of our lives.